Palin the Non-President

Gov. Sarah Palin’s sudden resignation as the governor of Alaska without any clear future plans leaves me, as many people, baffled. I had Friday off, however, and spent the weekend celebrating Independence Day instead of reading every pundits thought on the surprise political twist. Looking back after the dust has settled some, we seem just as confused as before. Many such as Mark Steyn says she is tired and wants out of the national stage. It certainly is a reasonable position for any mother (and grandmother) with five children to take–life is stressful enough without the relentless attention, scrutiny, and late-night TV jokes. Others say she is stepping back to focus on 2012, but if that were the case she surely would have been a bit more scripted in her approach. Victor Davis Hanson says it is a long-term strategy to prepare for 2016 or beyond, an argument I find plausible but not fully watertight.

When John McCain announced Sarah Palin as his running mate, I grudgingly consented on the basis of novelty and last-minute campaign boosts. She has impressed me since then, but generally comes across as somewhat naive and in need of more experience and training, but with the right ideas and energy. The sudden pullback seems to me either a very carefully thought decision or a very hasty one; both likely inspired by a need pull back for the sake of her family and consider what the future holds.

She could leave politics for good. This seems doubtful, given her sudden rise and popularity with many Republicans. More likely in my mind is Victor Davis Hanson’s suggestion, that she spend the next several years developing herself into a candidate more ready for prime-time and with credible exposure. People who hoped Gov. Palin would lead the GOP to victory in 2012 are sadly delusional–Sarah Palin’s popular anti-establishment with homegrown doses of conservatism has many appeals, but would be hopeless against a black president who won on the platform of “change.” As an instrument of conservatism, she would fall easily. If, however, she determines to strengthen her positions and knowledge in the next several years, she could easily come back as an articulate, intellectual and punchy answer to the Left  in 2016.

That is a big if. But it is the only way for her to have any presidential aspirations in my mind. Perhaps after a rest she will return, either to Alaska state politics or the broader national scene, but Republicans should give her time to think and consider the costs to her family and the high-states she will be playing. She is not ready at this moment, and if she is ever to be ready the GOP should look elsewhere until then.

Sanford & the GOP

I, like many people, was shocked and saddened to hear of South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford’s affair. The pain and sorrow he and his entire family are experiencing deserve the sympathy of all Americans. But I also found myself incredibly angry, not only with Governor Sanford but also with a party and officials who constantly fail personally and politically. Mark Sanford is merely the latest in a string of personal scandals for Republicans beginning with Congressman Mark Foley (anybody remember him?).

The issue at stake is credibility, and Republicans have successfully proven within my young memory that they have none to offer. The sweep of the 1994 elections (the year Mark Sanford was first elected to Congress) and the Contract with America was supposed to continue Reagan era and lead us back towards limited government and personal freedoms. Instead, fed by a booming economy and an amiable President Clinton, Republicans quickly lost focus and will, collapsing into gridlock after Newt Gingrich’s own extra-martial affair. The election of George W. Bush, whom I admire and respect on many levels, continued a bloated conservatism that trampled on the ideas of fiscal conservatism, small government and personal responsibility. The world certainly changed on September 11th, but conservative ideals did not. But rather than adapt to a new world of terrorism and para-state politics, the Republican party largely abandoned any idea of principles and became a softer form of the Democratic opposition.

Having proved our indifference in politics, Republicans attempted to returned to moral high ground by carrying elections on appeals to Evangelical Christians and the broader “Christian Coalition.” This too, was a mistake, for the Christian Coalition (as an organization and movement) lost much of its potency in the 1990s as Americans not only turned away from religion, but from scandal-ridden preacher demagogues. Even as someone raised within the “Christian Right,” I am horrified by the blatant attempts to associate the Republican party with the idea of a Christian America. Especially when those claiming “moral values” fail to live up to them.

All men stumble and fail, and all may receive forgiveness from God and their fellow man. But politically, Republicans have reached the end of the rope. We have exhausted every avenue of credibility we have—fiscally, individually and morally. We spend like mad men and then attack President Obama’s proposals as “irresponsible.” We proclaim personal freedom and responsibility and pass the PATRIOT Act and authorize TARP funds. We proclaim family and marriage only to leave our wives for other women. Why should anyone trust us?

Ever since the 2000 Election the GOP has suffered from a leadership vacuum. Many have attempted to fill it, all have failed. Some, such as Senator Ensign or Governor Sanford, were considered front-runners to lead the GOP and even as candidates in the 2012 elections. But as the last weeks have shown, neither are up to the calling; and few are in line to replace them. Things have gotten so bad we have attempted to resurrect Newt Gingrich to lead a clarion call of conservatism—but who can forget his own past failings? Those who say the GOP just needs to “stick to its principles” over-simplify things, but are correct that principles are only worth the weight you personally put in them.

Republicans need to clean house, if there is any house left standing to clean. I believe in forgiveness, but forgiveness does not mean a future in politics. Governor Sanford should resign, as should Senator Ensign. To put it bluntly: our party has no room for liars, adulators or hypocrites. There can be no more “rehabilitation” or return for them to elected office. Their opportunity came and they squandered it and the name of the party in the process. A party that is struggling to focus its message and restore its brand—as the GOP should be doing—cannot tolerate any deviation from the key planks, as Senator Ensign and Governor Sanford have clearly done. Unfortunately, the existing party leadership and roster of elected officials offers few options to replace them. Massive reforms, energy and focus are needed if the GOP is to survive, and new leaders must be cultivated and launched to ensure the party’s future. If not, we deserve to die as a failure of the political free market.

Obama Gets It

After my previous post commenting on rising oil prices and the logical result (decreasing oil usage), I am heartened to see that at least someone in this presidential election understands simple economics. At least, as they apply to oil usage.

Barack Obama said on Saturday Americans would start changing the kinds of cars they drive if gasoline prices continue to climb and said he owned a hybrid vehicle, though he doesn’t drive it much.

Without specifically telling Americans to stop buying gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles, the Illinois senator said higher fuel prices would lead to a shift (Reuters).

I’m not quite sure why we need to mention his personal hybrid vehicle, but it is good to hear that the Senator at least understands basic market forces as they apply to the consumer. Now if only he had a better grasp of macro economics…

Three Rings Circus

The “Super Tuesday” primaries were supposed to help bring clarity to the presidential race. And in the Republican race, it did a pretty good job: placing Senator John McCain far ahead of Governor Mitt Romney and leaving the realistic options for the candidates fairly limited. Governor Mike Huckabee, after a decent showing in the South has vowed to continue in his bid to represent a Christian America in the White House, while Romney—ever the businessman—read the forecast and “suspended” his campaign yesterday. McCain is the last man left standing, a conservative who many people thought was thrown out of the party years ago, a conservative who is desperately trying to make peace with certain branches of his more-conservative party. Beside McCain, the hopes for Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul look grim indeed, as McCain will likely be able to gain enough grudging trust from most Republicans to win their votes.

 It isn’t like they have a choice, however. The presidential race has effectively been reduced to a three circus, with McCain emerging the ringmaster of a massive Republican brawl, bruised but standing tall. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton continue to compete however, with no clear leader after the virtually fifty-fifty percent split of the vote on Tuesday. One of them will ultimately emerge victorious to face McCain, but not without great anger and animosity for both sides. Huckabee and Paul will continue to appear as side shows, drawing some attention and applause, but ultimately unable to take the main spotlight from the showdown of the big three: McCain, Obama and Hillary.

John McCain can only hope that Obama and Clinton fight on as long as necessary. Each is deeply committed, and their candidacies have divided the Democratic Party into two very opinionated camps. Obama brings change, Clinton experience; and never shall the two met it seems. If you thought being a conservative this election is hard, just remember the Democrats who have it worse. McCain can only benefit from a long, protracted Democratic fight, allowing him to focus on wooing the many skeptical (and sometimes even hateful—Ann Coulter, anyone?) conservatives who he will need to win the election.

 I’m fairly confidant McCain will be able to bring people to his side, if only through the sheer fear of Clinton or Obama in the White House. And despite his many positions that conservatives bewail as liberal and socialist (campaign finance reform, immigration), many of his positions are actually inline with mainstream conservatism (Iraq especially). This is of course the rub: how mainstream is conservatism, and what is mainstream conservatism? Personally, there are many things I disagree with my party on, whether in scale or scope. And yet I still support the party because I know that my views are limited in their popularity. Many of my friends with similar views are currently Ron Paul supporters, a candidate who I agree with on many things but have remained very skeptical of through the campaign. My objections to a vote for Ron Paul have been erased by McCain’s new position as the presumable nominee, however—a vote for Ron Paul (in the primary, at least) is no longer a vote of indifference to the party, but now an actual statement of discontent with current Republican policies. This I cannot object to, although I still would have reservations about an actual Paul presidency.

The circus has passed the first act, the crazy carnival of pre-primary noise where dozens of candidates try to outshine each other, and has suddenly neared the end of the primary season, the second act of seat-gripping suspense where the many are reduced to the few. Soon, the final act will be upon us, with McCain facing the Democratic nominee and the true battle beginning. And that will be the biggest act of all.

Briefly

I hope to write a complete explanation for my recent move to supporting Fred Thompson this weekend, but in the mean time this excellent article will have to do. More on his website at Fred08.com—if you are still undecided in this race I’d recommend a good hard look at Senator Thompson.