Gov. Sarah Palin’s sudden resignation as the governor of Alaska without any clear future plans leaves me, as many people, baffled. I had Friday off, however, and spent the weekend celebrating Independence Day instead of reading every pundits thought on the surprise political twist. Looking back after the dust has settled some, we seem just as confused as before. Many such as Mark Steyn says she is tired and wants out of the national stage. It certainly is a reasonable position for any mother (and grandmother) with five children to take–life is stressful enough without the relentless attention, scrutiny, and late-night TV jokes. Others say she is stepping back to focus on 2012, but if that were the case she surely would have been a bit more scripted in her approach. Victor Davis Hanson says it is a long-term strategy to prepare for 2016 or beyond, an argument I find plausible but not fully watertight.
When John McCain announced Sarah Palin as his running mate, I grudgingly consented on the basis of novelty and last-minute campaign boosts. She has impressed me since then, but generally comes across as somewhat naive and in need of more experience and training, but with the right ideas and energy. The sudden pullback seems to me either a very carefully thought decision or a very hasty one; both likely inspired by a need pull back for the sake of her family and consider what the future holds.
She could leave politics for good. This seems doubtful, given her sudden rise and popularity with many Republicans. More likely in my mind is Victor Davis Hanson’s suggestion, that she spend the next several years developing herself into a candidate more ready for prime-time and with credible exposure. People who hoped Gov. Palin would lead the GOP to victory in 2012 are sadly delusional–Sarah Palin’s popular anti-establishment with homegrown doses of conservatism has many appeals, but would be hopeless against a black president who won on the platform of “change.” As an instrument of conservatism, she would fall easily. If, however, she determines to strengthen her positions and knowledge in the next several years, she could easily come back as an articulate, intellectual and punchy answer to the Left in 2016.
That is a big if. But it is the only way for her to have any presidential aspirations in my mind. Perhaps after a rest she will return, either to Alaska state politics or the broader national scene, but Republicans should give her time to think and consider the costs to her family and the high-states she will be playing. She is not ready at this moment, and if she is ever to be ready the GOP should look elsewhere until then.