Obama Gets It

After my previous post commenting on rising oil prices and the logical result (decreasing oil usage), I am heartened to see that at least someone in this presidential election understands simple economics. At least, as they apply to oil usage.

Barack Obama said on Saturday Americans would start changing the kinds of cars they drive if gasoline prices continue to climb and said he owned a hybrid vehicle, though he doesn’t drive it much.

Without specifically telling Americans to stop buying gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles, the Illinois senator said higher fuel prices would lead to a shift (Reuters).

I’m not quite sure why we need to mention his personal hybrid vehicle, but it is good to hear that the Senator at least understands basic market forces as they apply to the consumer. Now if only he had a better grasp of macro economics…

Three Rings Circus

The “Super Tuesday” primaries were supposed to help bring clarity to the presidential race. And in the Republican race, it did a pretty good job: placing Senator John McCain far ahead of Governor Mitt Romney and leaving the realistic options for the candidates fairly limited. Governor Mike Huckabee, after a decent showing in the South has vowed to continue in his bid to represent a Christian America in the White House, while Romney—ever the businessman—read the forecast and “suspended” his campaign yesterday. McCain is the last man left standing, a conservative who many people thought was thrown out of the party years ago, a conservative who is desperately trying to make peace with certain branches of his more-conservative party. Beside McCain, the hopes for Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul look grim indeed, as McCain will likely be able to gain enough grudging trust from most Republicans to win their votes.

 It isn’t like they have a choice, however. The presidential race has effectively been reduced to a three circus, with McCain emerging the ringmaster of a massive Republican brawl, bruised but standing tall. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton continue to compete however, with no clear leader after the virtually fifty-fifty percent split of the vote on Tuesday. One of them will ultimately emerge victorious to face McCain, but not without great anger and animosity for both sides. Huckabee and Paul will continue to appear as side shows, drawing some attention and applause, but ultimately unable to take the main spotlight from the showdown of the big three: McCain, Obama and Hillary.

John McCain can only hope that Obama and Clinton fight on as long as necessary. Each is deeply committed, and their candidacies have divided the Democratic Party into two very opinionated camps. Obama brings change, Clinton experience; and never shall the two met it seems. If you thought being a conservative this election is hard, just remember the Democrats who have it worse. McCain can only benefit from a long, protracted Democratic fight, allowing him to focus on wooing the many skeptical (and sometimes even hateful—Ann Coulter, anyone?) conservatives who he will need to win the election.

 I’m fairly confidant McCain will be able to bring people to his side, if only through the sheer fear of Clinton or Obama in the White House. And despite his many positions that conservatives bewail as liberal and socialist (campaign finance reform, immigration), many of his positions are actually inline with mainstream conservatism (Iraq especially). This is of course the rub: how mainstream is conservatism, and what is mainstream conservatism? Personally, there are many things I disagree with my party on, whether in scale or scope. And yet I still support the party because I know that my views are limited in their popularity. Many of my friends with similar views are currently Ron Paul supporters, a candidate who I agree with on many things but have remained very skeptical of through the campaign. My objections to a vote for Ron Paul have been erased by McCain’s new position as the presumable nominee, however—a vote for Ron Paul (in the primary, at least) is no longer a vote of indifference to the party, but now an actual statement of discontent with current Republican policies. This I cannot object to, although I still would have reservations about an actual Paul presidency.

The circus has passed the first act, the crazy carnival of pre-primary noise where dozens of candidates try to outshine each other, and has suddenly neared the end of the primary season, the second act of seat-gripping suspense where the many are reduced to the few. Soon, the final act will be upon us, with McCain facing the Democratic nominee and the true battle beginning. And that will be the biggest act of all.

Briefly

I hope to write a complete explanation for my recent move to supporting Fred Thompson this weekend, but in the mean time this excellent article will have to do. More on his website at Fred08.com—if you are still undecided in this race I’d recommend a good hard look at Senator Thompson.

Diagnosis

Did the GOP go wrong?

Republican Presidential candidate Gov. Mike Huckabee may of hit the nail on the last week when said that the GOP is losing elections because, well, many of it’s members don’t act like Republicans! Although acting like a Republican is not an official qualification for membership in the party, it has never been popular to act like members of the other party.

Said Huckabee: “We didn’t fight corruption like we should, we didn’t curtail spending, we didn’t resolve problems.” Really? Could that be why people who believe in such things aren’t too happy with the party? Such login seems apolitical.

Looking back, what do conservatives/Republicans have to be proud of? The Reagan years, although filled with victories, resulting in only middling change that was soon replaced by Bush and Clinton. Spending and the national debt went through the roof, nothing was done on abortion or life issues, education and the environment continued to deteriorate, and social programs continued to expand. The only lasting achievement of the Reagan years was decline and collapse of Soviet Communism—a great service to the world and to America, but of little [immediate] practical value at home.

The Presidency of George H. W. Bush is generally remembered for the “no new taxes” fiasco, a nearly successful (but not quite complete) operation in Iraq, and a humiliating defeat to an Arkansas governor. Even more discouraging, the years between 2000-2006 when the country had a Republican Congress and a social-Republican President, very little progress was made on social or fiscal issues. Now I’m not trying to critique two decades of politics, but I am saying that despite the many years of possibility and potential, very little has happened.

To be sure, the new focus on terrorism and the aftershocks of the September 11 deserve attention and priority, and have been carried out fairly well. But any of the other things that Conservatives, Christians or Republicans care about? Very little. Rather, increasing partisanship on both sides of the political divide and increasing benevolence to the nation’s problems have marked the eras. Can anything be done? I’m not sure. Movements are underfoot, and slowly gaining steam, movements that seek to bring back ideals and the actions that once marked conservatism. Only time will tell.

Straw Polls

Saturday was marked by one of the first “official” events of the American political cycle, the Ames, Iowa straw poll for Republican candidates. The straw poll is actually a fundraiser for the Republican Party of Iowa, charging $35 for the privilege of voting. And although the poll has long legal bearing whatsoever, it does help separate the wheat from the chaff in terms of viable candidacies. The results were generally as expected, with former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney winning with 4,500 votes out of 13,000 votes cast, around 30%. Current President George W. Bush also won 30% in the 1999 straw poll.

The results may be skewed, however, by Rudy Giuliani and Senator John McCains’ decision to not participate. Although a few hundred people wrote-in their names, Giuliani and McCain’s absence raise questions about the strength of their campaigns, and the strength of their opponents. Mike Huckabee, for instance, placed a surprising second, despite his small organization and low spending. Romney, on the other hand, spent millions for his votes, but also had a massive organization and volunteer network. Giuliani has been polling behind Romeny in Iowa, and may of wanted to avoid an embarrassment, while John McCain’s decision was made months ago before his campaign begin faltering.

If nothing else, the poll did give further legitimacy to Mitt Romney’s campaign, which has faced some difficulty in being accepted. It also allowed surprise second-place finisher and second-tier candidate Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas (a la Bill Clinton) to attract some much needed media attention. Hopefully, poor results will also encourage some candidates to drop out, and making the constant debates more manageable (10 to a debate just doesn’t work well unless it is a single-issue debate). Former Wisconsin governor Tommy Thompson took the hint almost immediately, and dropped out the next day. Kansas Senator Sam Brownback is also expected to drop, despite his third-place finish.

Ron Paul supporters were rather encouraged by the Congressman’s 5th place finish, although Paul supporters are known for being incessantly optimistic. Some candidates will likely insist on hanging on until the (ever nearing) Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire primaries to admit defeat, but the Ames Straw poll has usually proved a fair indicator of likely success.