Three Rings Circus

The “Super Tuesday” primaries were supposed to help bring clarity to the presidential race. And in the Republican race, it did a pretty good job: placing Senator John McCain far ahead of Governor Mitt Romney and leaving the realistic options for the candidates fairly limited. Governor Mike Huckabee, after a decent showing in the South has vowed to continue in his bid to represent a Christian America in the White House, while Romney—ever the businessman—read the forecast and “suspended” his campaign yesterday. McCain is the last man left standing, a conservative who many people thought was thrown out of the party years ago, a conservative who is desperately trying to make peace with certain branches of his more-conservative party. Beside McCain, the hopes for Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul look grim indeed, as McCain will likely be able to gain enough grudging trust from most Republicans to win their votes.

 It isn’t like they have a choice, however. The presidential race has effectively been reduced to a three circus, with McCain emerging the ringmaster of a massive Republican brawl, bruised but standing tall. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton continue to compete however, with no clear leader after the virtually fifty-fifty percent split of the vote on Tuesday. One of them will ultimately emerge victorious to face McCain, but not without great anger and animosity for both sides. Huckabee and Paul will continue to appear as side shows, drawing some attention and applause, but ultimately unable to take the main spotlight from the showdown of the big three: McCain, Obama and Hillary.

John McCain can only hope that Obama and Clinton fight on as long as necessary. Each is deeply committed, and their candidacies have divided the Democratic Party into two very opinionated camps. Obama brings change, Clinton experience; and never shall the two met it seems. If you thought being a conservative this election is hard, just remember the Democrats who have it worse. McCain can only benefit from a long, protracted Democratic fight, allowing him to focus on wooing the many skeptical (and sometimes even hateful—Ann Coulter, anyone?) conservatives who he will need to win the election.

 I’m fairly confidant McCain will be able to bring people to his side, if only through the sheer fear of Clinton or Obama in the White House. And despite his many positions that conservatives bewail as liberal and socialist (campaign finance reform, immigration), many of his positions are actually inline with mainstream conservatism (Iraq especially). This is of course the rub: how mainstream is conservatism, and what is mainstream conservatism? Personally, there are many things I disagree with my party on, whether in scale or scope. And yet I still support the party because I know that my views are limited in their popularity. Many of my friends with similar views are currently Ron Paul supporters, a candidate who I agree with on many things but have remained very skeptical of through the campaign. My objections to a vote for Ron Paul have been erased by McCain’s new position as the presumable nominee, however—a vote for Ron Paul (in the primary, at least) is no longer a vote of indifference to the party, but now an actual statement of discontent with current Republican policies. This I cannot object to, although I still would have reservations about an actual Paul presidency.

The circus has passed the first act, the crazy carnival of pre-primary noise where dozens of candidates try to outshine each other, and has suddenly neared the end of the primary season, the second act of seat-gripping suspense where the many are reduced to the few. Soon, the final act will be upon us, with McCain facing the Democratic nominee and the true battle beginning. And that will be the biggest act of all.